With the Justices of the Supreme Court deciding to take on gay marriage and perhaps settling the question once and for all, the general consensus is they’re going to go along with the tide of history which is moving toward marriage equality. But, as with all things, anything can happen.
My feeling is that the movers and shakers of the Republican Party machinery would rather the Supreme Court legalize gay marriage and take it off the table. Yes, in the past the GOP has used gay marriage as a wedge issue to get the base to the polls, but more and more that wedge is leaning against them. A majority of Americans now supports marriage equality. So some Republicans may welcome the idea of the Supreme Court taking gay marriage off their hands.
On the other hand, there is still the religious right and the tea party contingent who don’t base their decisions on logic. With them, there can be no compromise, History means nothing. What the majority of Americans want means nothing. Gay marriage, to them, is wrong and will always be wrong no matter what. They cannot help but be themselves. So they will pull the GOP in their direction and attempt to force compliance on any candidate trying to win the primary. And that may just keep the Republicans from having any chance at winning the White House in 2016. Not just on gay marriage, but immigration and many other issues as well.
But, as I said above, anything can happen. The Supreme Court may surprise us all and rule against gay marriage. But if gay marriage is not settled and remains a wedge issue, it is rapidly becoming a wedge that favors the Democrats.